Generalized Centrifugal Force Model for Pedestrian Dynamics

A spatially continuous force-based model for simulating pedestrian dynamics is introduced which includes an elliptical volume exclusion of pedestrians. We discuss the phenomena of oscillations and overlapping which occur for certain choices of the forces. The main intention of this work is the quantitative description of pedestrian movement in several geometries. Measurements of the fundamental diagram in narrow and wide corridors are performed. The results of the proposed model show good agreement with empirical data obtained in controlled experiments.Comment: 10 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication as a Regular Article in Physical Review E. This version contains minor change

What is the market potential for on-demand services as a train station access mode?

Ride-hailing and other on-demand mobility services are often proposed as a solution for improving the accessibility of public transport by offering first/last mile connectivity. We study the potential of using on-demand services to improve train station access by means of a three-step sequential stated preference survey. We compare the preferences for on-demand services with the bicycle, car and public transport for accessing two alternative train stations at different access distances. We estimate a joint access mode and train station choice model. By estimating a latent class choice model, we uncover five distinct segments in the population. We describe the classes based on their stated preferences, travel behaviour, attitudes towards new mobility and their socio-demographic characteristics. The two largest classes, accounting for over half of the sample, are the most likely to adopt on-demand services. Having an average willingness-to-pay, they would choose these services for longer access distances, competing mainly with the car and local public transport. Applying the model estimates, we observe that while on-demand services mainly compete with public transportation (obtaining most of its travellers from it), they are not able to fully substitute a public transport service for train station access, as many users would switch to cycling or driving a car, rather than opting for the on-demand service

Potential of on-demand services for urban travel

On-demand mobility services are promising to revolutionise urban travel, but preliminary studies are showing that they may actually increase the total vehicle miles travelled, thereby worsening road congestion in cities. In this study, we assess the demand for on-demand mobility services in urban areas, using a stated preference survey, to understand the potential impact of introducing on-demand services on the current modal split. The survey was carried out in the Netherlands and offered respondents a choice between bike, car, public transport and on-demand services. 1,063 valid responses are analysed with a multinomial logit and a latent class choice model. By means of the latter, we uncover four distinctive groups of travellers based on the observed choice behaviour. The majority of the sample (55%) are avid cyclists and do not see on-demand mobility as an alternative for making urban trips. Two classes (27% and 9% of the sample) would potentially use on-demand services: the former is fairly time-sensitive and would thus use on-demand service if they were sufficiently fast. The latter class however is highly cost-sensitive, and would therefore use on-demand mobility primarily if it is cheap. The fourth class (9%) shows very limited potential for using on-demand services

Quantitative analysis of pedestrian counterflow in a cellular automaton model

Pedestrian dynamics exhibits various collective phenomena. Here we study bidirectional pedestrian flow in a floor field cellular automaton model. Under certain conditions, lane formation is observed. Although it has often been studied qualitatively, e.g., as a test for the realism of a model, there are almost no quantitative results, neither empirically nor theoretically. As basis for a quantitative analysis we introduce an order parameter which is adopted from the analysis of colloidal suspensions. This allows to determine a phase diagram for the system where four different states (free flow, disorder, lanes, gridlock) can be distinguished. Although the number of lanes formed is fluctuating, lanes are characterized by a typical density. It is found that the basic floor field model overestimates the tendency towards a gridlock compared to experimental bounds. Therefore an anticipation mechanism is introduced which reduces the jamming probability.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Constant net-time headway as key mechanism behind pedestrian flow dynamics

We show that keeping a constant lower limit on the net-time headway is the key mechanism behind the dynamics of pedestrian streams. There is a large variety in flow and speed as functions of density for empirical data of pedestrian streams, obtained from studies in different countries. The net-time headway however, stays approximately constant over all these different data sets. By using this fact, we demonstrate how the underlying dynamics of pedestrian crowds, naturally follows from local interactions. This means that there is no need to come up with an arbitrary fit function (with arbitrary fit parameters) as has traditionally been done. Further, by using not only the average density values, but the variance as well, we show how the recently reported stop-and-go waves [Helbing et al., Physical Review E, 75, 046109] emerge when local density variations take values exceeding a certain maximum global (average) density, which makes pedestrians stop.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure

A chemical biology approach for targeting of ligand-drug conjugates

Cells express a large array of membrane receptors on their surface that function as a communication channel between the extra- and intracellular environment of the cell. Ligands for these receptors span a wide range of biomolecules, from proteins to carbohydrates to small molecules. Some receptors are continuously recycling between the membrane and the inside of a cell, whereas others are in a steady-state at the membrane and need ligand binding for their activation and subsequent internalization. Synthetic molecules that bind to these membrane receptors can be used to either modulate their function, or to target a reporter group (i.e. a fluorescent dye) and/or a bio-active compound (drug, protein) to cells that express this receptor, ensuring delivery to a specific cell-type. The research described in this Thesis combines synthetic and biochemical methodologies to create ligands that interact selectively with membrane receptors of the GPCR and lectin-binding families. Attachment of synthetic probes, proteins or cytostatic molecules to these ligands by a variety of chemical and enzymatic methods ensured their uptake exclusively into cells that expressed the receptor of interest. Visualization of this process was enabled by the incorporation of a fluorescent dye into the final constructs.UBL - phd migration 201

Solving the Direction Field for Discrete Agent Motion

Models for pedestrian dynamics are often based on microscopic approaches allowing for individual agent navigation. To reach a given destination, the agent has to consider environmental obstacles. We propose a direction field calculated on a regular grid with a Moore neighborhood, where obstacles are represented by occupied cells. Our developed algorithm exactly reproduces the shortest path with regard to the Euclidean metric.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Cost-Effectiveness of Cancer Screening: Health and Costs in Life Years Gained

Introduction: Studies reporting on the cost-effectiveness of cancer screening usually account for quality of life losses and healthcare costs owing to cancer but do not account for future costs and quality of life losses related to competing risks. This study aims to demonstrate the impact of medical costs and quality of life losses of other diseases in the life years gained on the cost-effectiveness of U.S. cancer screening. Methods: Cost-effectiveness studies of breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening in the U.S. were identified using a systematic literature review. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the eligible articles were updated by adding lifetime expenditures and health losses per quality-adjusted life year gained because of competing risks. This was accomplished using data on medical spending and quality of life by age and disease from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2011–2015) combined with cause-deleted life tables. The study was conducted in 2018. Results: The impact of quality of life losses and healthcare expenditures of competing risks in life years gained incurred owing to screening were the highest for breast cancer and the lowest for cervical cancer. The updates suggest that incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are underestimated by $10,300–$13,700 per quality-adjusted life year gained if quality of life losses and healthcare expenditures of competing risks are omitted in economic evaluations. Furthermore, cancer screening programs that were considered cost saving, were found not to be so following the inclusion of medical expenditures of competing risks. Conclusions: Practical difficulties in quantifying quality of life losses and healthcare expenditures owing to competing risks in life years gained can be overcome. Their inclusion can have a substantial impact on the cost-effectiveness of cancer screening programs

Co-construction of knowledge through Participatory Action Research: People-First Tourism methodology and research tools

People-First Tourism (P1t) research examines the role of tourism microentrepreneurship on equity and sustainability among people with vulnerable livelihoods. Studying the subaltern carries inherent challenges, which can be best addressed through PAR methodologies. Accordingly, P1t research includes tourism microentrepreneurs as partners in the research process so that they participate in a process of conscientization that helps them identify forces undermining their livelihoods. Our involvement with participants develops gradually as we coach them and collect data. This process earn us entry to more in-depth insights and stronger-inference longitudinal findings. In addition, P1t is associated with a social venture that sells experiences provided by participating microentrepreneurs. Consequently, in addition to expected project impacts on policy, P1t is generating direct benefits to the participants’ livelihoods. In this presentation we will discuss the PAR methodology guiding P1t and will train session participants on how to use some of the P1t research tools

The valuation of European financial firms

We extend the recent literature concerning accounting based valuation models to investigate financial firms from six European countries with substantial financial sectors: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK. Not only are these crucial industries worthy of study in their own right, but unusual accounting practices, and inter-country differences in those accounting practices, provide valuable insights into the accounting-value relationship. Our sample consists of 7,714 financial firm/years observations from 1,140 companies drawn from 1989-2000. Sub-samples include 1,309 firm/years for banks, 650 for insurance companies, 1,705 for real estate firms, and 3,239 for investment companies. In most countries we find that the valuation models work as well or better in explaining cross-sectional variations in the market-to-book ratio for financial firms as they do for industrial and commercial firms in the same countries, although Switzerland is an exception to this generalization. As expected, the results are sensitive to industrial differences, accounting regulation and accounting practices. In particular, marking assets to market value reduces the relevance of earnings figures and increases that of equity